Mathammer: Basics

let me begin with this: luckly, there's not a right way to win at wh40k. personally i really enjoy to have a nice time with my friends when i play with "toy soldiers" but, of course, no one wants to lose games all the time and i am no exception.
every player, when it comes to list making, asks himself what unit he should put in or which piece of wargear suits best a possible combat with a designated enemy. some simply choose the most expensive options, others always use the same bone-crunching combo that their codex allows.

well, this article wants to be something different. some time ago, while i was passing from one defeat to another, i worked out this method which is a simple probabilistic analysis of what is more likely to come out with a roll of dice.
let's say you want to know how likely is that your space marine kills an ork, ok? in order to understand how much this event is likely to happen you simply have to make a little maths but don't worry, only some products or divisions :-)
space marines has BS4 so hit on 3+, bolter has S4 so wounds a T4 on 4+, bolter's AP is 5 so no armour save is allowed. on a D6 a roll of 3+ happens in 4 cases on 6 so we use a fraction to say this: 4/6= 0.66. we can say almost the same for the 4+ roll: 3 cases on 6 so 3/6=0.5

let's put this altogether:
if space marine shots 1 time we have: 4/6*3/6*100= 33.33%
(as you can see i multiplied by 100 to have a number in percentage)
if space marine shots 2 times (eg: target within 12") we have: 2*4/6*3/6*100= 66.66%

you can apply this approach with nearly every weapon and target in the game, there are some tricky issues i'll explain in next posts.

i hope i've been clear, i explained the question in the most straightforward way i found. i don't know if any other player wrote on this issue before, so if this is not that piece of news, please tell me. thank you.

PS: of course to apply this method you've got to know, at least vaguely, which enemy will stand before you.
PS2: BIG WARNING, this is a method with which you can know the average behaviour of a weapon or trooper against a given enemy. if you are lucky/unlucky with dice the "statistic prediction" may not work! also: the more dice you throw, the more you'll stick with Mathammer results.

and yes, i'm a nerd.

more on the dreadnought

so, i made some thoughts about what's better for my purposes between classic dreadnought and ironclad. the task is pretty simple: i gotta thrash some black templars that regularly kill pretty easily my ultras. here we go:

CLASSIC: 105 points for av12, dreadnought close combat weapon and multimelta. cheap and nice. broad weapons selection, far better than iroclad but vulnerable to lascannons and of course melta weapons. about the options:

• replace storm bolter with heavy flamer is almost always a good idea

replace multimelta with:

• twin linked heavy flamer is a bad idea
  
• twin linked heavy bolter worse idea
  
• twin linked autocannon is perhaps good but i don't like it (autocannon has an imperial guard taste for me)
  
• plasma cannon or assault cannon is better than the previous option, imo, anyway amusing
  
• twin linked lascannon pretty good, but bloody expensive!
• replace close combat weapon with twin linked autocannon or missile launcher... well, it's always nice to have a mobile shooting platform, like the Mortis pattern (twin linked lascannon & missile launcher) but if you are not in desperate need of firepower, well... you should avoid.
  
• Take extra armour... well i'd dare say always, as a dreadnought in close combat is always a pain in the ass (for your opponent) and extra armour allows to charge in close combat even if you reported a "stunned" on the damage table

IRONCLAD: 135 points for av13, dreadnought close combat weapon with storm bolter, seismic hammer with meltagun (so it has 4 attacks while charging instead of 3) and extra armour. less cheap but nicer. and never understimate the "move through cover" ability. a lot less vulnerable to lascannons but still fearful of melta weapons. about the options:

• replace storm bolter with heavy flamer is as good as with the classic
  
• replace melta gun with heavy flamer is also good (twin heavy flamer fun against troops holding objectives) but you risk overkill that is never a good thing when you are in the middle of the battlefield provided it isn't the last turn
  
• replace combat weapon with hurricane bolters... don't even think about that
  
• replace seismic hammer with chainfist: no, because it is almost always useless to roll 2d6 for penetration when you have strength 10. i wonder if the chainfist makes you to attack last
  
• take up to 2 hunter killer missiles is overpriced, so no.
• take ironclad assault launchers don't like because enemy power fists will hit last anyway, so no.

it's pretty clear to see that Ironclad is the most suitable for some close combat killing, especially when you gotta crush all those marshalls out there!

dreadnought anyone?

let's talk about dreadnoughts: the classic, the venerable and the ironclad.

personally i do like only the first one: the second is too expensive, the third is an awful miniature, if i will field it i'll certainly convert a classic one (i own the metal one and the plastic one) instead of buying a new plastic ironclad.

my personal two cents: i find myself in the embarrassing situation of losing lots of space marines squads due to some hateful black templars crusades so i said myself: "let's go armour, those bastards can't pierce anything heavier than armour 10... only the power fist (2 attacks charging) can be a problem". in this case armour 13 of the ironclad can be of some help. also a second close combat weapon might be useful. obviously the tactic is to keep the dreadnought ready for countercharge the crusade squad or even bash the land raider that transports them with the close combat weapon.

theoretically, it can work out. but what if i play against other enemies? the problem would rise if i have to play a game against a slower army, like tau or imperial guard... i guess the dreadnought, without a drop pod would be useless... but i hate drop pods.

so? please help me!

[40k army list] Ultramarines

ok, just a quick escape from summer's laziness to ask: what do you think?

HQ
chaplain: power fist (on land raider)

ELITES
none

TROOPS
tactical squad: sergeant with melta bombs, meltagun, lascannon (combat squad on razorback)
razorback: extra armour, twin linked lascannon, dozer blade
tactical squad: plasmagun, plasma cannon
tactical squad: sergeant with power fist, flamer, missile launcher (on land raider)

FAST ATTACK
bike squadron: 5 bikes, sergeant with power sword, plasmagun x2+assault bike with multimelta
land speeder squadron: 2 speeders with multimelta

HEAVY SUPPORT
predator destructor: autocannon, heavy bolter x2, extra armour
land raider: godhammer pattern (lascannons and heavy bolter), extra armour

[40k army list] Teo's Catachan imperial guard

HQ
company command squad: regimental standard, lascannon, astropath, vox-caster
colonel Straken

ELITES
guardsman Marbo

TROOPS
INFANTRY PLATOON
platoon command squad: melta bombs, vox-caster, meltagun x3, (on chimera)
chimera: heavy flamer x1, heavy bolter x1, extra armour
infantry squad: lascannon x1, vox-caster
infantry squad: lascannon x1, vox-caster
infantry squad: missile launcher x1, vox-caster, (on chimera)
chimera: heavy flamer x1, heavy bolter x1, extra armour
veteran squad: lascannon x1, plasma gun x1, gunnery sergeant Harker
veteran squad: plasma gun x3 (on valkyrie)

FAST ATTACK
scout sentinel squadron: autocannon x2
valkyrie: lascannon, rocket pods x2

HEAVY SUPPORT
leman russ: battlecannon, heavy bolter x2, lascannon x1
leman russ demolisher: demolisher cannon, heavy bolter

[40k army list] imperial guard

ok, please check out this 1500 pts armylist:

HQ
company command squad: regimental standard, lascannon, astropath, master of ordnance
lord commissar: boltgun, power fist, refractor field

TROOPS
INFANTRY PLATOON
platoon command squad: meltagun, meltabombs
infantry squad: heavy bolter
infantry squad: heavy bolter, flamer, chimera
chimera: multilaser, heavy bolter
infantry squad: lascannon
infantry squad: lascannon

veteran squad: lascannon
veteran squad: plasma gun x3

FAST ATTACK
scout sentinel squadron: multilaser x2, autocannon x1
rough rider squad: hunting lance x10, power weapon x1
valkyrie: multilaser, rocket pods x2

HEAVY SUPPORT
leman russ: battlecannon, heavy bolter x3
leman russ vanquisher: vanquisher cannon, heavy bolter, camo netting

let me know what do you think... it works exactly like the previous. i'm planning to swap the vanquisher with a demolisher or, maybe, field 3 russes...

random thoughts about imperial guard vs eldars

yesterday night i played a nice match versus Orlando's (friend of mine) eldars... my army was the one in the list some posts below and Orlando's army was composed by 2 bike mounted farseers with some powers, 10 banshees on wave serpent, 6 fire dragons on falcon, 10 avengers on wave serpent, 5 jetbike guardians, warwalker squadron (3x warwalker). we had a pitched battle with seize ground. here's some thoughts about my own units:
LEMAN RUSS: when i opened fire with every weapon of the old reliable leman russ battle tank at a war walker squadron two of them got shaken and one destroyed. nice shot sir. in addition his battlecannon proved to be very nasty with both farseers (say goodbye!) and wave serpents (which one of them got destroyed by a well placed shot). then he got blasted by fire dragons, sigh.
SCOUT SENTINELS: both squadrons i have fielded flanked the enemy in a very effective way thanks to the astropath. in particular the ones with multilasers killed the bikes (what a luck) and the autocannon armed locked into close combat the war walkers for at least 4 turns so they never shot anything.
VANQUISHER: even if it managed to do some minor damage, it never proved to be very dangerous but it's not its fault, energy fields (they cancel its vanquisher cannon's outstanding armour penetration!) and holo field are too hard for him. gotta re-test.
VALKYRIE: finally also imperial guard has his fast response unit and it behaves extremely well! although it is quite a big model you can keep it in reserve to make it flank the enemy so there's no problem. rocket pods seems amusing but i couldn't test them well (lack of targets). i never made a gravchute insertion, too risky. by the way it is an excellent upgrade to a too static imperial guard!
VETERANS: everyone have great expectations about them, well, let's say they won't disappoint you. they are cheap and they have BS4 and also some nice (but costly) upgrades. the pity is that L7/8 but as i said, they are cheap enough to forget it... so go for them!
INFANTRY: i love them. the orders had turned these folks into something quite dangerous so don't fear to spend some extra points on them, they're gonna re-pay you. "bring it down" + heavy weapons squads = TNT
STORMTROOPERS: yeah, they can reroll the deep strike scatter dice and they have 4+ TS. yeah, they carry the hotshot lasgun and 2 special weapons and also have BS4. but they have LEADERSHIP 8! come on, they always work in some dangerous manner, isolated from the rest of the army and there is no way to improve their leadership value! they cost too much! yesterday night my 10 men squad got 3 men killed by the fire dragons and guess what? they got out of the table! more than 180 pts practically flushed! i think i'm not gonna re-field them.

it's all for now, let's hear what do you think guys!

[40k army list] imperial guard

i'm not satisfied at all about this list but i guess i have to test it first... then i will make an exact opinion.

HQ
company command squad: regimental standard, lascannon, astropath, master of ordnance

ELITES
stormtroopers (10 men): meltagun x2

TROOPS
INFANTRY PLATOON
platoon command squad
infantry squad: heavy bolter
infantry squad: heavy bolter
heavy weapons squad: heavy bolter x3
heavy weapons squad: lascannon x3

veterans: lascannon
veterans: plasma gun x3

FAST ATTACK
scout sentinel squadron: autocannon x2
scout sentinel squadron: multilaser x2, smoke launchers
valkyrie: multilaser, rocket pods x2

HEAVY SUPPORT
leman russ: battlecannon, heavy bolter x3
leman russ vanquisher: vanquisher cannon, lascannon, camo netting

let me know what do you think... maybe it can help.

[40k army list] black templars

here's some thoughts from Teo: please tell him via comments what do you think about its possible new army list.

HQ

Marshal "Navarre": lightning claws x2, iron halo, terminator honours, frag grenades, 151 pts
emperor's champion: accept any challenge no matter the odds 140 pt

TROOPS

crusader squad "Sapientia": 10 +4,bolt pistol, close combat weapon, power fist x1, meltagun x1, assigned to crusader, 225 pt

crusader squad "Honor": 9, bolt pistol, close combat weapon, power fist x1, meltagun x1, assigned to rhino

crusader squad "Virtus": 10 + 2, bolter x 4, bolt pistol + close combat weapon x 4, lascannon x1, plasmagun x1, 201 pt

TRASPORTS

Land Raider Crusader "Thanatos": dozer blade, smoke launchers, blessed hull, 298 pt
Rhino: dozer blade, smoke launchers, extra armour, 63 pt

HEAVY SUPPORT

Vindicator x 2: demolisher cannon x1, smoke launchers, 256 pt

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

models: 41, points: 1503

the marshal embarks in the crusader, the champion in the rhino. crusader advances 12" forward covering vindicators and rhino.
what do you think? i'm curious to know if this list i playable or it is mere folly, dunno why but it inspires me very much ;-)